Turkmenistan has the same primary goal as Kazakhstan — to secure export routes that will strengthen the country economically and politically. The means to achieve that goal, however, differ --primarily because Turkmenistan has weaker relations with Russia and stronger relations with Iran.
When Gazprom decided not to sell Turkmen gas on European markets, leaving
only delinquent customers such as Armenia and the Ukraine to Turkmenistan,
it created a desperate situation. By the spring of 1997, Ukraine
owed Turkmenistan 450 million dollars for its gas shipments. In Gazprom’s
dealings, Turkmenistan’s president, Niyazov, commented that he “smelled
old Soviet ambitions,” and soon after, he halted deliveries to Russia’s
pipelines. However, Turkmenistan has yet to find other customers.
There are three reasons why Turkmenistan can distance itself from Russia far more easily than can Kazakhstan: Turkmenistan does not share a border with Russia, it does not have a significant Russian minority, and it has a potentially close relationship with Iran. By contrast, a common border, shared interest in pipelines, and a large Turk minority in Iran, all draw Turkmenistan toward Iran. Turkmenistan’s relationship with Iran is indeed sufficiently strong enough to allow Turkmenistan to oppose (or at least not overtly support) routes preferred by the west, namely Turkey and the United States. Recently, Kazkahstan, Turkey, and the United States signed a declaration in Ankara in favor of a Trans-Caspian pipeline that would bypass Iran. Unwilling to upset Iran, but nonetheless desiring to keep as many options open as possible, Turkmenistan opted for a bilateral agreement with Turkey instead.
Overall, Turkmenistan will support any realistic alternative to get its
gas out. If the wishes of Turkey and the United States prevail regarding
the trans-Caspian pipeline, Turkmenistan will send its gas across the Caspian.
On the other hand, if the economic incentives of a route through Iran overcome
current political obstacles, Turkmenistan will send its gas via Iran to
Turkey. By whichever route the gas ends up getting to market, the
key to development in Turkmenistan is in the hands of its authoritarian,
but nonetheless entrepreneurial, President Niyazov. He has repeated
several times that every cent of gas revenues will go into a government
fund and, consequently, has run into conflicts with several independent
oil and gas companies.