### Georgia

If a new pipeline for Azeri oil is to avoid Iran and Russia, it would have to pass through either Georgia or Armenia. The state of war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, would clearly make impossible any Armenian route for the near future. Consequently, a route through Georgia is the only current option.

Georgia’s population is 5.2 million, only 70% of whom are ethnic Georgians – which means that 30% of the population are not – thus the problems with Abkhazians, Ossetians, and Russians within the country. Georgia covers a territory of 69,700 square kilometers. Its main exports are citrus fruits and wines, and it has virtually no heavy industry.

Much like virtually all of its southern CIS neighbors, Georgia has been under Moscow’s rule for most of the last two centuries. Its only period of independence in living memory was from 1918-1921, following which it was quickly incorporated into the Soviet state. After its 1991 declaration of independence, Georgia briefly pursued an independent national policy under President Gamsakhurdia. However, his refusal to join the CIS and blatant disregard of Russia’s interests quickly antagonized Moscow.

As a result, when Abkhazian leaders declared independence from Georgia on July 23, 1992, they received extensive support from Russia. Russian pilots flew sorties for the Abkhazians and the Russian Black Sea navy shelled the Georgian coastline. These actions were personally authorized by Defense Minister Grachev and they were aimed to force Georgia to join the CIS and to sign collective security agreements with Russia. Boris Pastukhov, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, delivered the ultimatum to Georgia’s government, “We will not let you win the war in Abkhazia.”

Russia’s pressure finally paid off when, after winning the civil war with Gamsakhurdia, due to direct Russian support and Russian T-74 tanks, Shevarnadze was forced to join the CIS and to grant the Russian military rights to bases in Georgia. To this date, Shevarnadze remains dependent upon the 1500 strong Russian peacekeeping force in southern Abkhazia. Meanwhile, Russia purposefully keeps the conflict simmering to ensure Georgia’s continued dependence upon its good offices.

Despite its troubled internal situation, Georgia is aggressively campaigning for a pipeline route through its territory, either to carry Azeri oil directly to Turkey, or to use and upgrade the existing pipeline to Supsa. However, Russia stands opposed to these plans, not wanting Azerbaijan to have any options for oil exports other than through Russian territory. Georgian officials claim that the recent attempt on the life of Shevarnadze and the resumption of fighting in Abkhazia in late May of 1998 are the results of Russia attempting to prevent a Baku-Supsa pipeline. They believe that Russia wants instability in Georgia, so that Georgia is not selected as the route for Azeri oil exports.

Russia’s interference in Abkhazia is especially clear when compared to the parallel situation developing in South Ossetia. Whereas Russia directly involved itself in stirring up and aggravating the Abkhazian conflict, Moscow remained comparatively quiet in South Ossetia. This is of course due to the neighboring North Ossetia, right within the Russian border. As a result of Russia’s desire to contain that conflict, the leader of South Ossetia was encouraged to meet with President Shevarnadze on June 21st, 1998, and a speedy peaceful settlement seems very likely. The Ossetians appear to have abandoned claims to full independence.

Thus, the Georgian case represents a serious warning to the United States and the West. Georgia, primarily due to cultural and religious differences, cannot rely on close ties with Turkey or Iran to counter-balance Moscow’s influence in the region. Consequently, if Moscow is left unsatisfied in any future energy-exports agreement, it could severely disrupt both Georgia's domestic stability and any pipeline through its territory.

Georgia Links