Even with the additional costs of using LR-2 tankers or the construction
of a $1 billion Bosporus bypass, the Baku-Supsa
route is considerably cheaper than Baku-Ceyhan,
though a bypass route is cheaper than a direct Baku-Ceyhan line.
Overland pipeline bypass options that have been considered run from the
Turkish Black Sea ports of Samsun or Zonguldak to Ceyhan on the Mediterranean.
These would utilize a combination of new and existing lines or building
completely new lines running from Turkish Thrace out to the Aegean Sea.
One non-Turkish option is to send oil through Bourgas in Bulgaria to the
Greek port of Alexandroupolis.
There is also a proposal to ship oil by tanker from
Supsa or Novorossiysk to Samsun on the northern Turkish Black Sea coast
and then pipe the oil to Ceyhan. A Samsun-Ceyhan line would be able to
utilize some existing pipe to Ceyhan and avoid the Bosporus, but would
be more expensive than a Thrace bypass, although cheaper than a direct
Baku-Ceyhan line. Considering the economic advantages of the other routes,
Baku-Ceyhan does not appear to be a legitimate economic option to avoid
the Bosporus.
| Baku-Supsa-Thrace (800 kb/d) | Cost / b |
| Lifting costs at AIOC | $5.00 |
| Pipeline to Supsa | $0.68 |
| Georgian Transit Fee | $0.43 |
| Tanker to Thrace | $0.40 |
| Thrace Bypass | $0.59 |
| Shipping to Rotterdam, VLCC | $0.76 |
| Subtotal | $7.86 |
|
Tanker Size |
barrel |
of Bypass |
Tanker Size |
barrel |
of Bypass |
| Supsa, LR-2 | $1.83 | 93% | Novorossiysk, LR-2 | $2.25 | 93% |
| Supsa-Turkish
Bypass, VLCC |
$2.01 | 100% | Novorossiysk-Turkish
Bypass, VLCC |
$2.43 | 100% |
| Supsa-Samsun-
Ceyhan, VLCC |
$2.54 | 126% | Novorossiysk-Samsun-
Ceyhan, VlCC |
$2.96 | 122% |
| Bkau-Ceyhan, VLCC | $3.02 | 150% |