### Kazakhstan

Of the four states, Kazakhstan is by far the largest in size and population—at least five times the size and twice the population of the rest. Located in the arid deserts to the east of the Caspian, it covers 2,717,000 square km., and has a population of 16.6 million. The Kazakhs, however, make up only 37% of the above number, the rest being primarily Russian. For the most part, the Kazakh half of the population is Muslim, while the Russian and Ukrainian half is Russian Orthodox. The economy is regionally skewed — with virtually all heavy industry in the North, and agriculture predominating in the South. Mining (primarily of metals and coal) and oil production are the two most important industries in Kazakhstan. Important agricultural exports include grain, livestock, and wool. Finally, more than in any other republic, the water crisis caused by the gradual drying up of the Aral Sea endangers Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector.

Kazakhstan has two primary goals in securing pipeline routes for its oil. The first and foremost is to gain economic and political independence. The second is to establish a friendly and cooperative relationship with Russia, a neighbor with whom Kazakhstan shares a 4,500 mile border. In light of these two goals, President Nazarbayev has pursued routes through Iran and Turkey in addition to a route through Russia.

Common economic and security ties left over from the Soviet Union draw Kazakhstan strongly toward Russia. Prior to independence, Russia accounted for approximately seventy percent of Kazakhstan’s total trade. Today, eighty percent of all Kazakhstan’s exports to the CIS states go to Russia. While a part of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan, due to its long border with China, housed several nuclear plants and significant numbers of Russian military personnel and facilities. After it gained its independence, Kazakhstan returned much of this military arsenal to Russia, and the nuclear power plants closed down. However, many Soviet-era defense factories and facilities are still operational, such as the Baikanour Space Center, and are heavily invested in by Russia.

Economically, Moscow has exerted its leverage in several ways. The only gas export routes available to Kazakhstan today are through Russia and are run by Russia’s Gazprom. In competition for European markets, Gasprom sells only Russian gas to Europe while distributing Kazakh gas within Russia. Consequently, Kazakhstan gets only a portion of what its gas is worth. Russia also controls many oil and gas factories in Northern Kazakhstan, where the majority is ethnic Russian, not Kazakh. Moscow has regularly left these factories without power, primarily as a punishment for state debts.

The primary security concern in AlmaAty is Russia’s potential to fuel a secessionist movement among the six million Russians in Kazakhstan. Discontent among the Russian minority is already present — they desire dual citizenship with Russia, a privatization policy that does not favor Kazakhs, and the establishment of Russian as the official state language. President Nazarbayev so far has been able to guarantee political stability in the short term by balancing Kazakh and Russian interests. However, any of his potential successors would probably prove either pro-Kazakh or pro-Russian, which could provoke a bloody national crisis.

Iran and Turkey are both interested in building better relations with Kazakhstan. For example, Demirel states, “As president of the Turkish Republic, I want to say the following to the Kazakh people and to the honorable president Nazarbayev: Under all conditions, and on every issue, Turkey will be on the side of Kazkahstan.” From such friendship, Turkey would like to see some Kazakh oil delivered through a Ceyhan pipeline.

Iran, likewise, would like to secure a transit route through its territory for Kazakh oil. From Kazakhstan’s perspective, however, Iran differs from Turkey in one crucial way — Iran has its own reserves to consider. As with Russia, this would present risks flowing out of a conflict of interest.

Kazakhstan Links