Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents
Yuanhua Qiao, Nir Keren, M. Sam Mannan
Journal of Hazardous Materials
Cilt: 167, Sayı: 1-3, 374-382, 2009/08/15
Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Transportation risk analysis; Hazardous materials transportation; Accident frequency; Negative binomial regression; Fuzzy logic model
Elsevier B. V.
|1.||Teknolojik Kazalar » Taşımacılık Kazaları|
|2.||Bilimsel Çalışmalar » Risk Analizi ve Değerlendirmesi|