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Ignition probabilities

OGP

Seri: Risk Assessment Data Directory

Sayı: 434-6.1, 2010/03

The data presented in section 2 provide estimates of the probabilities of hydrocarbon releases igniting to result in an explosion and/or a sustained fire. These data may be applied to any on the leak types described in the Process Release Frequencies datasheet.

The values presented relate to "total" ignition probability, which can be considered as the sum of the probabilities of immediate ignition and delayed ignition. Immediate ignition can be considered as the situation where the fluid ignites immediately on release through auto-ignition or because the accident which causes the release also provided an ignition source. Delayed ignition is the result of the build-up of a flammable vapour cloud which is ignited by a source remote from the release point. It is assumed to result in flash fires or explosions, and also to burn back to the source of the leak resulting in a jet fire and/or a pool fire.

These probabilities are considered appropriate for use in QRA studies where a relatively coarse assessment is acceptable. Section 3.2 refers to a more detailed approach for QRAs where this is considered to be required.

International Association of Oil & Gas Producers

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