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A modeling study for the health risk posed by the nuclear power plant in Bulgaria in different parts of Turkey

Unver, O., Tuncel, G.

Fresenius Environmental Bulletin

Cilt: 13, Sayı: 9, 879-888, 2004

In this study, effects of potential accidents at the Kozloduy nuclear power plant (NPP) in Bulgaria and that of the NPP at Akkuyu, which will be located on the Turkish Mediterranean coast, were investigated using numerical modeling. The approach used in the study was to choose an accident day in the ideal year 2000, which would result in the highest radionuclide deposition over Turkey. A comprehensive modeling was performed for that particular day. A potential accident in the worst case scenario resulted in up to 10(6) Bq m(-2) activity deposition over the Marmara region. Calculation of delayed health effects of the deposition and surface activity levels indicated that approximately 21 000 people would be affected from the accident with fatal and non-fatal consequences.
The same approach used to determine the health risk due to a potential accident at the proposed Akkuyu NPP showed that in case of an accident at the worst possible meteorological conditions depositions as high as 10(7) Bq m(-2) would result over a narrow strip including Nigde-Nevsehir-Kayseri and extending to the north coast of Turkey. When such an accident occurs, 30 500 people could be expected to suffer from late effects of radioactivity deposition and levels in the atmosphere. The deposition patterns resulting from accidents were explained using the forward trajectories calculated for the days of accidents at both locations.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Kozloduy; Turkey; accident; HySPLIT; health; risk

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