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A modelling study for the health risk posed by nuclear power plant in Bulgaria at different parts of Turkey

Özge Ünver

2003/12

In this study, following a severe accident at Kozloduy nuclear plant in Bulgaria how Turkey would be affected was investigated. The severe accident refers to core meltdown accident with catastrophic failure of containment. The model used is HySPLIT model developed in America. The worst day was predicted considering deposition of radionuclides. For initial runs, accidental release of I-131 and Cs-137 radionuclides was modeled for each day of year 2000 to find the worst day, seen to result from release beginning on April 7th 2000. After modeling release of all radionuclides for the worst day, radiation dose at different receptors, 12 most populated cities over Turkey has been calculated via different pathways. Late effects, fatal cancer, non-fatal cancer and hereditary risks, has been investigated for these receptors. The mostly affected part of Turkey was Marmara region and fatal cancer risk therein was 7x10^-2 %. The collective health risk throughout Turkey was approximately 20600 people. The same approach was then applied for investigating health risk of proposed nuclear reactor at Akkuyu, Turkey. In this case, the worst day was resulted from release beginning on 21st of February 2000. The worst affected part was the narrow strip in Central Anatolia extending to the north-eastern cost and fatal cancer risk in this region was 3.4x10^-1 %. The collective health risk over Turkey was approximately 30600 people. The results showed that Kozloduy nuclear plant has dominating effect throughout Turkey, but proposed Akkuyu reactor affects very limited region.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Nuclear; HySPLIT; accident; Kozloduy

Middle East Technical University

Department of Environmental Engineering, Ankara, Turkey

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